Holiday Online Sales 4.28% Growth Report

iHumanMobile.com partner reports online retail sales with Adobe Digital Insights updating its Thanksgiving Day results through 5:00PM ET.

  • Online Sales: $1.15B
  • Online Sales Growth: 13.6%
  • Desktop Share of Visits: 46%
  • Desktop Share of Sales: 61%
  • Mobile Share of Visits: 54%
  • Mobile Share of Sales: 39%
  • Smartphone Share of Visits: 44%
  • Smartphone Share of Sales: 28%
  • Tablet Share of Visits: 10%
  • Tablet Share of Sales: 11%
  • Desktop Conversion: 3.4%
  • Tablet Conversion: 3.2%
  • Smartphone Conversion: 1.7%
  • Search Share of Sales: 33.3%
  • Direct Traffic Share of Sales: 24.9%
  • Shopper Helper Share of Sales: 20.7%
  • Email Share of Sales: 17.6%
  • Display Share of Sales: 2.3%
  • Social Share of Sales: 1.2%
  • Out-of-Stock Rates: 7.8%
  • Top Grossing Electronics: iPads, Samsung 4k TVs, HP Inspiron Computers
  • Top Grossing Toys: Electric Scooters & Vehicles for Kids, Drones, Nerf Guns
  • Product with High Out Of Stock Risk: NES Classic Edition, New Nintendo 3DS Super Mario, Playstation VR Launch Bundle, Hatchimals, Kurio Smart Watches, Cozmo by Anki
  • Consumer spend is down per order on the following categories: Video Game Consoles (-13%), Toys (-14%), Televisions (-7%), Jewelry (-20%), Computers (-15%)
  • Consumer spend has increased per order on the following categories: Pets (+144%), Tablets (+33%), Furniture & Bedding (+12%), Ticket Admissions (+19%)
  • Biggest price decreases: Tablets (average discount of 25.1%), televisions (average discount of 23.6%), and toys (average discount of 16.8%).  Discounts for tablets are 12.9% higher than last year, 12.1% higher for pet care products and 8.4% higher for toys. Appliances and TVs launched in 2016 are also seeing bigger discounts than comparable products last year (5.7% and 6.9%, respectively), as well as video game consoles (5.6%)
    • Computers and Furniture & Bedding are trending at similar discount levels to last year (10.6% and 6.4%, respectively)
    • Consumers may actually pay more for Christmas Décor (+4.3%) and sporting goods (+4.1%) 

November 24, Thanksgiving Day, as of 11:00AM ET

On Thursday, November 24, Adobe Digital Insights released total seasonal performance as well as overall performance for November 23. In addition, it has released morning performance for Thanksgiving.

  • Total Online Sales: $27.2B
  • Total Online Growth Rate: 4.28% (on-average for entire period YoY)
  • November 23 Online Sales: $1.57B
  • November 23 Growth Rate: 19%
  • 21 out of 22 days have exceeded $1B in online sales
  • November 24 Online Sales: $336M
  • iOS Average Order Value: $144
  • Android Average Order Value: $119
  • Desktop Conversion Rate: 2.9%
  • Tablet Conversion Rate: 3.2%
  • Smartphone Conversion Rate: 1.5%
  • Search Share of Sales: 35.2%
  • Direct Traffic Share of Sales: 24.5%
  • Shopper Helper Share of Sales: 20.7%
  • Email Share of Sales: 15.7%
  • Display Share of Sales: 2.3%
  • Social Share of Sales: 1.5%
  • Out-of-Stock Rates: 6.4%
  • Top Grossing Electronics (Nov. 24): Samsung 4K TVs, iPads, PlayStation 4
  • Top Grossing Toys (Nov. 24): Electric Scooters & Vehicles for Kids, Lego Dimensions, Shopkins
  • Product with High Out-of-Stock Risk: Hatchimals, Speak Out Game, PJ Masks, Cozmo by Anki, NES Classic Edition, New Nintendo 3DS Super Mario, PlayStation VR Launch Bundles

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In addition, Adobe Digital Insights released additional survey information around consumer thoughts and behaviors on Thanksgiving Day. It also gathered social buzz on what makes the list at the dinner table.

  • 30% of Thanksgiving Day shoppers will use a smartphone because they are on-the-go; 24% because they can shop online without it being noticed by family/friends 
  • 72% of consumers approve of Thanksgiving Day store closures; those 35+ most likely to approve (77%)
  • 50% of consumers plan to shop after 5pm on Thanksgiving
  • Wine paring with Thanksgiving, Beaujolias takes 53% of the share.
  • The buzz is on about fried Turkey, with 67% of consumers talking about it. Smoked comes in second at 24%.
  • Sides, Stuffing and Dressing ranks #1, followed by mashed potatoes, and cranberry sauce.
  • No surprise: Turkey takes home 88% of the main entrée buzz, ham comes in second at 11%
  • Desserts: Pumpkin Pie 44% of the buzz, followed by Sweet Potato Pie at 21%

Total Performance from November 1- 22, 2016

On Wednesday, November 23, Adobe Digital Insights released total holiday spend from November 1 through November 22. The data shows that there was a negative impact from the presidential election in terms of visits and revenue, but spending began to rebound on November 12, 2016. In total, $25.59B online sales occurred between November 1 and 22, 2016, or 3.5% total year-over-year growth. This is a difference of -$780M compared to the prediction, which had estimated 6.7% total year-over-year growth by this time ($26.37B). 

  • Total Online Sales: $25.59B
  • Total Online Growth Rate: 3.5%
  • 21 out of 22 days have exceeded $1B in online sales
  • Desktop Share of Visits: 53%
  • Desktop Share of Sales: 71%
  • Mobile Share of Visits: 47%
  • Mobile Share of Sales: 29%
  • Desktop Conversion: 3.2%
  • Tablet Conversion: 2.9%
  • Smartphone Conversion: 1.3%
  • iOS Average Order Value: $132
  • Android Average Oder Value: $117
  • Search Share of Sales: 40.0%
  • Direct Traffic Share of Sales: 28.0%
  • Shopper Helper Share of Sales: 16.0%
  • Email Share of Sales: 15.0%
  • Out-of-Stock Rates (Nov. 22): 5.2% (-2.30% percentage points below last year)
  • Top Grossing Electronics (Nov. 22): Samsung 4K TVs, iPads, MacBooks
  • Top Grossing Toys (Nov. 22): Electric Scooters & Vehicles for Kids, Scooby Doo and Minecraft Lego Sets, Paw Patrol toys
  • Product with High Out-of-Stock Risk: SNES Classic Edition, SAMSUNG GEAR S3 Smart Watches, PlayStation VR Launch Bundle, Hatchimals, Speak Out Game, PJ Masks, Trolls Collector Pack
  • For new products (those not available last Christmas), toys, tablets, and computers are seeing the more discounts this year vs. last year Adobe Digital Price Index (-5.4%, -19.2%, and -7.8%, respectively). Sporting goods are trending higher (+11% percentage points).
  • Apparel, Appliances, Furniture, Televisions, and Video Game Consoles are trending at discount levels similar to last year.
  • In terms of spending, consumers are spending less per order (AOV) on video game consoles (-7%, $490 vs. $528), jewelry (-14%, $86 vs. $100) and computers (-13%, $558 vs. $638). 
  • Pet Care, Tablets, and Apparel have seen increases in spend per order (AOV) (+140%, +7%, and +6%, respectively).

In addition, Adobe Digital Insights surveyed over 500 U.S. consumers in mid-November to determine how their holiday shoping was going. Some interesting trends were revealed:

  • Gaming systems are tops with Millennials. When asked what technology products they are most likely to buy for themselves or others this holiday season, 22% of 18- to 24-year-olds and 25% of 25- to 34-year-olds said gaming systems (compared to 13% for the overall population).
  • 27% of U.S. consumers say that the results of the presidential election will have an impact on how much they spend this holiday season, with men more likely to say so (33% vs. 20% for women). Of those who say it will impact, 62% say they would spend less, 38% would spend more.
  • As of mid-November, consumers have, on average, completed less than one-third (31%) of their holiday shopping. Those 25 to 34 report the highest average (37%). Less than one-third (29%) say they will have completed their holiday shopping by the end of November, meaning much shopping remains to be done in December.
  • 45% of consumers agree with the statement that they plan to use their smartphone much than they did last year in terms of holiday shopping (this jumps to 64% for those 18-24, and 59% for those 25-34).
  • Not sure what to buy for yourself or others? 13% of consumers say they plan on purchasing gaming systems or a smart TV, 11% say they plan on purchasing a fitness tracker, and 10% say they plan on purchasing a TV streaming device.
  • Consumers most likely to shop online on Black Friday (52%) and Cyber Monday (62%), and to see those days as offering the best chance for online deals.

Total Performance from November 1 – 14, 2016

On Friday, November 17, Adobe Digital Insights released total holiday spend from November 1 through November 14. The data shows that there is a negative impact on the election for consumer spending, as total online sales have come in $800M under the prediction. The sharpest drop occurred after the election, and total sales growth has slowed to 1.35% YoY. The change in spending habits marks the slowest growth rate for online sales Adobe has seen in the United States since it started tracking retail spending. 

  • Total Online Sales: $15.5B
  • Total Online Growth Rate: 1.35%
  • 13 out of 14 days have exceed $1B in online sales (compared to 11 out of 14 in 2015)
  • Desktop Share of Visits: 53%
  • Desktop Share of Sales: 71%
  • Mobile Share of Visits: 47%
  • Mobile Share of Sales: 29%
  • Desktop AOV outperforms smartphone AOV by 27%
  • Desktop AOV outperforms tablet AOV by 14%
  • Desktop Conversion: 3.2%
  • Tablet Conversion: 2.9%
  • Smartphone Conversion: 1.3%
  • Search Share of Sales: 40.3%
  • Direct Traffic Share of Sales: 27.3%
  • Shopper Helper Share of Sales: 15.6%
  • Email Share of Sales: 14.4%
  • Top Electronics Products: Samsung 4K TV, iPhones, PlayStation 4, iPads
  • Top Toys Products: Electric Scooters & Cars, Wild Things Toys, Shopkins
  • Product with High Out-of-Stock Risk: Nintendo SNES Classic, Hatchimals, PJ Masks

November 11, Veterans Day – Full Day Results

  • Online Sales: $1.16B
  • Online Sales Growth YoY: 1%

November 11, Veterans Day, as of 3:30PM ET

  • Online Sales: $840M
  • Online Sales Growth YoY: 15.5%
  • Desktop Share of Sales: 69%, 580M
  • Mobile Share of Sales: 31%, $260M
  • Apple iOS is driving 2.2x more share of smartphone revenue than Android
  • Desktop Share of Visits: 54%
  • Mobile Share of Visits: 46%
  • Desktop Conversion Rate: 2.4%
  • Smartphone Average Order Value: $126
  • Desktop Average Order Value: $166
  • Search Share of Sales: 36.5%
  • Direct Traffic Share of Sales: 27.9%
  • Email Share of Sales: 16.1%
  • Shopper Helper Share of Sales: 16.0%
  • Nintendo NES Classic, Hatchimals, and PJ Masks are at a great risk of running out of stock, according to the Adobe Digital Price Index (DPI)

November 11, Veterans Day, as of 12:30PM ET

  • Mobile Visit Share (AM): 46%
  • Mobile Purchase Share (AM): 34%
  • Desktop Visit Share (AM): 54%
  • Desktop Purchase Share (AM): 66%
  • Sporting Goods Price Discount: -5.8%
  • Appliances Price Discount: -6.1%
  • Toys Price Discount: -10.4% (Price discounts are 3x lower than last year)

Adobe Digital Insights also looked into social community mentions around Singles’ Day vs. Veterans Day in the United States that occurred between November 1-11. Veterans Day dominates and received 25x more mentions than Singles’ Day.

November 1-10, 2016 (through 11:59PM ET)

  • Total Online Sales: $10.9B
  • Total Online Growth YoY: 0.13%

November 9, 2016

  • Online Sales (Nov. 9): $1.1B
  • Online Sales Growth YoY (Nov. 9): -17.0%

Adobe Digital Insights’ Take: The actual performance for the holiday season has culminated in a -17.0% decline in year-over-year (YoY) online sales growth for November 9. In fact, the -17.0% is an even steeper decline than what was measured in the afternoon (-14.5% @ 12:00PM ET). Adobe Digital Insights expects a sales growth spike tomorrow, November 11, as Singles’/Veterans Day excitement increases. However, it will likely fall slightly short of the initial prediction of 16% YoY growth, $1.54B because of the continued election conversation. 

November 1-8, 2016 (Updated November 9, 2016 at 12:00PM ET, 9:00AM PT)

Adobe Digital Insights’ Take : For the first week of November, online shopping growth rates demonstrate that U.S. consumers have been significantly distracted by the 2016 Presidential Election. Online revenue growth rates declined as Election Day approached. An analysis of 17.6 billion shopping visits saw growth rates decline each day and turned negative yesterday, November 8, and are more negative today (11/9) as of 12:00PM ET.  It remains to be seen if the declines will continue in the days to come or if there will be a bounceback with greater-than-expected growth as the election news settles. Singles’ Day, which occurs November 11, will prove to be a good indicator of revenue predictions. It is the next day that Adobe Digital Insights is predicting to see a large year-over-year increase in online revenue growth.

  • Total Online Sales: $8.61B
  • Total Online Sales Growth YoY: 2.33%
  • Election Day (Nov. 8) Online Sales: $1.08B
  • Election Day (Nov. 8) Online Sales Growth YoY: -3.77%
  • November 9 Online Growth YoY: -14.5% (as of 12PM ET)

Adobe Digital Insights’ up-to-the-minute holiday data is based on aggregated and anonymous data from 17.6 billion visits to retail websites. 

About Adobe Digital Insights

Adobe Digital Insights publishes research on digital marketing and other topics of interest to senior marketing and e-commerce executives across industries. Research is based on the analysis of select, anonymous, and aggregated data from more than 5,000 companies worldwide that use the Adobe Digital Marketing Cloud to obtain real-time data and analysis of activity on websites, social media, and advertising.

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